The Ashes: Flintoff, Anderson and flat wickets

There is a oft-quoted stat about the number of times since 2005 that England have won when Andrew Flintoff has been in the team.  A total of 3 out of 23 is not very many.

Since his debut in 2003, James Anderson has played alongside Flintoff in 22 Tests, including the 1st Ashes Test at Cardiff.  These are his cumulative bowling figures for those matches, compared with his figures for matches where Flintoff has not played:

Matches O M R W BBI BBM Ave SR
22 (with Fred) 668.5 128 2385 55 5/102 7/119 43.36 72.9
16 (no Fred) 614.0 140 2066 75 7/43 9/98 27.54 49.1

At first glance it seems as if Anderson’s, and England’s, performance vastly improves if you take Flintoff out of the side.  Certainly, there are plenty of pundits who suggest that, considering the above win ratio, Flintoff is no longer vital to England’s chances – see here and here for just two examples.

But if you look at the individual matches (see the links in the above table), a different story emerges.

Of the 16 matches Anderson has played that Flintoff has not, 2 were against Zimbabwe, 5 against New Zealand and 4 against West Indies.  Only 5 were against stronger nation – India (3), Sri Lanka (1) and South Africa (1).  Six matches were played early in the English season, when conditions most suit Anderson’s bowling style.

Conversely, the matches Flintoff has played include just 5 against West Indies with South Africa (9), Sri Lanka (1), India (3) and Australia (4).  And one of the 5 against West Indies was the North Sound farce.

Here are the contrasting figures for Flintoff with or without Anderson:

Matches O M R W BBI BBM Ave SR
22 (with Jimmy) 713.3 143 2162 57 4/89 6/105 37.92 75.1
54 (no Jimmy) 1684.3 349 4959 162 5/58 8/156 30.61 62.3

Similar pattern to Anderson’s figures, but the variance between them is far less.  So, what does this tell us?

Aside from the fact that England’s win ratio when Flintoff plays is not an accurate pointer, it highlights a problem with the stated policy of Anderson leading the attack.  When conditions are in his favour, fine, he can be as destructive as any bowler in the world.  But present him with a bland pitch such as the one at Cardiff, and he struggles.

Conversely, Flintoff’s “hit the deck” style is less affected.  He will never be as destructive as Anderson on a green-top at Lord’s in May, but he will offer more on a road in Barbados.

This could work either way for England.  If the conditions favour the seamers, expect Anderson to come to the fore.  These matches will offer their best opportunity to win.  On the flatter pitches, a draw may be all they can hope for.

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