World Twenty20 preview
It’s only 10 months since the last edition, but I am strangely exited about this tournament in a way that it’s impossible to be about the IPL right now. The format is lean and snappy, the cricket will be competitive and it’s genuinely hard to call this one, although I am going to have a go. The Caribbean is excited about the World T20 where it was indifferent to the 2007 World Cup. So what’s going to happen?
All the signs indicate that the pitches are going to be dry and slow. This won’t be much different to England’s tour last year, but in a way it could make for fascinating T20 rather than that dull-as-ditchwater test series. Despite the IPL’s best efforts to convince otherwise, it’s still the contest between bat and ball that makes for the most engrossing viewing, rather than just cross-bat slogging. 140 is often a good score on slow pitches and slow outfields, so six-hitting will be important for teams to get above that and put themselves out of sight. Conversely though, that could mean taking undue risks and getting bowled out for a really low score.
The fascinating thing about the format is that the Super8 seedings are pre-determined by the seedings. It won’t matter who wins each group, just who finishes last. So, for example, England are seeded 2nd in their group, and will enter into the first Super8 pool (Group E) and would face Pakistan, New Zealand and South Africa.
If an unseeded team qualifies, they will take the position of the team eliminated from their group. So if Ireland were to qualify they would enter Group E if England are eliminated or Group F if West Indies are knocked out. It sounds more complicated than it actually is, and it simplifies the initial group phase.
Group A – Pakistan, Bangladesh, Australia
Last year’s champions, Pakistan, are as enigmatic as ever. When you have Shahid Afridi as captain, know that absolutely anything could happen. With a tricky first group they could be on their way home after a few days, or they could win the whole thing again, although I think this is less likely this time around. Umar Gul will be missing, and I think this will be their undoing, although if someone like Mohammad Aamer steps up they could do well again.
Player to watch: Shahid Afridi
Prediction: Super 8s
Many will be expecting Bangladesh to disappear with a whimper, but I think they will be harder to beat than that. With Shakib-al-Hasan and Mahmudullah leading the spin bowling, they should be able to exert pressure and keep things close, and in Tamim Iqbal they have a potential match-winner if he is fit.
Their seam bowling is poor so it will be vital that the spinners, and expect to see at least three selected, take wickets. They are also prone to disastrous batting collapses, and I think the opposition bowling will be too strong for them. But not by as much as people think.
Player to watch: Tamim Iqbal
Prediction: Group exit
Australia are many people’s favourites, which is strange considering that their Twenty20 pedigree isn’t great at international level. They bombed in last years tournament, but won’t be as bad this time round. Because of that performance they are not seeded in their group, so could end up in either of the Super 8 pools.
The problem they might face is the pitches – their squad is packed full of fast bowlers and lacking in spin options. They also chose to leave Dougie Bollinger at home, an utterly mystifying decision when you consider the inclusion of the scattergun selections of Shaun Tait and Mitchell Johnson. Having said that, you can never write them off, but I think the semi-finals will be their absolute limit.
Player to watch: Dirk Nannes
Prediction: Super 8s
Group B – Sri Lanka, New Zealand, Zimbabwe
Sri Lanka are the top seed in their group, and will be expected to challenge for the title. They certainly have the talent, yet there is a large “but”. Many of their stars, such as Tillekeratne Dilshan, struggled for form in the IPL, and Sanath Jayasuriya continues to be selected when he should be put out to pasture.
They’ll have enough to see off Zimbabwe, and if the “Three Ms”, Murali, Malinga and Mendis, hit their stride they will be a match for anyone and they have players of the quality of Jayawardene, Sangakkara and Angelo Mathews who can get them enough runs to defend.
Player to watch: Angelo Mathews
Prediction: Runners-up
New Zealand always tend to do ok in tournaments without being spectacular, but they have the players to make a go of it. They’re the sort of team who are often labelled dark horses, but when you have Jesse Ryder, Ross Taylor and Brendan McCullum in your batting order, you’ve always got a chance.
On the flip-side, the bowling attack after Shane Bond and Daniel Vettori is workmanlike, so they will need these two to be at the top of their games if they are to exert control in the field. They will be steady, but it’s will need something spectacular from Taylor or McCullum to beat the big guns.
Player to watch: Jesse Ryder
Prediction: Super 8s
It’s really hard to know what to make of Zimbabwe. They haven’t competed effectively against the Test nations, Bangladesh excepted, for years, yet there is a sense thay they are on the up again. The warm up victory over Australia will have given them confidence, and they are somewhat of an unknown quantity to many.
When you consider that one victory could be enough to get through to the Super 8s, you never know. The offspin of captain Prosper Utseya will be important, and he does have a very good T20 record. If bowling attacks get stuck into their batting, however, they will be in trouble.
Player to watch: Prosper Utseya
Prediction: Group exit, just
Group C – South Africa, India, Afghanistan
South Africa are amongst the favourites, and expect them to utterly monster Afghanistan. They play without compassion against lesser sides, but have a habit of becoming inhibited (trans: choking) against the bigger players. The essence of the playground bully.
There’s no doubting their talent, with Graeme Smith, Jaqcues Kallis, AB de Villiers and Dale Steyn giving them a very strong base. Albie Morkel can be a destroyer with the bat, and is the most prolific bowler of all T20 time (albeit in far more matches than his nearest rivals).
But raw talent isn’t their problem, mental toughness under pressure is, and they can also be pedestrian in the field. So it would be no surprise if they won it, yet it would be no surprise if they crashed out against a team that they should beat.
Player to watch: Albie Morkel
Prediction: Semi-final
India are the hot favourites again, almost entirely due to the hype of the IPL rather than it’s substance. They certainly have talent, but there will be questionmarks over their preparedness after a long IPL tournament so recently. Also, Virender Sehwag is missing through injury, which will deprive them of vital impetus at the top of the order. It’s hard to tell just how good some of the younger players are, with the quality of cricket in the IPL being questionable.
Much will depend on Dhoni, Zaheer Khan and Bhajji, and a couple of the younger batsman will have to step up. Most likely appear to be Suresh Raina and Murali Vijay. At least they should be used to slow pitches.
Player to watch: Suresh Raina
Prediction: Super 8s
Afghanistan are the team everyone wants to see, and everyone’s second team. Their rise has been miraculous for a war-torn country and few know much about them. Recent results would suggest that they are a better team than Ireland, and you can expect them to have great team spirit and play with smiles on their faces. A win is unlikely against India, and less so against South Africa, but it certainly won’t be boring.
Player to watch: all of them
Prediction: plucky first round exit
Group D – West Indies, England, Ireland
Ok, cards on the table time. I think West Indies have a real chance to win this. With Gayle and Pollard they can destroy any attack in the competition. If those two fail there’s Dwayne Bravo and Ronnie Sarwan. And if things get tough Shiv Chanderpaul can battle it out.
They’ve got good spinners in Benn and Deonarine, a top wicketkeeper in Ramdin and fast bowlers like Bravo, Taylor and Rampaul who can make things happen. Add home advantage and a cavalier spirit, and they look a powerful, well balanced unit with lots of options.
Complacency could be a problem, but I can’t see them having any problems with England or Ireland and from then on anything is possible. So I’m tipping them to win it.
Player to watch: Kieron Pollard
Prediction: Winners
England. What do we make of England? They have both expressed their confidence and played down expectations at the same time in the build up, and I think they’re right to be cautious. They certainly have capable players throughout the squad, but at the same time there are a lot of question marks.
Biggest of these is the opening pair of Lumb and Kieswetter. It’s (yet another) new partnership with no track record, and it remains to be seen whether either can make the sort of impact that England need in the first six overs. Lumb was ok at the IPL, and had a good T20 Cup for Hampshire last summer, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that he is not international class. Kieswetter probably is, but is young and new to the side.
The middle order looks good, with KP, Collingwood and Morgan with, probably, Bopara. Swann is the main bowling option, and Broad and Anderson will lead the pace attack. The rest of the bowling is uncertain – Tredwell is the 2nd, fairly untried, spinner, Sidebottom is on the decline, Bresnan is solid but nothing more, Shahzad is an unknown at this level and Luke Wright can take wickets but is often very expensive.
The complete lack of IPL exposure among the bowlers could work for them (they’re fresh) or against them (they’re rusty). They will be hard to beat, and will squeak past Ireland in the manner to which we are accustomed, but to win the tournament someone will need to have the best 7 matches of their career. And remember, it’s less than a year since they lost to Holland.
Player to watch: Eoin Morgan
Prediction: Semi-final
I would say that Ireland are the least likely of the non-test nations to spring an upset. Having been the best of the associate nations by far for some time, they’ve probably now been overtaken by Afghanistan, at least in the 20 over format.
They won’t lack for motivation, especially against England. In fact, expect motivation and a determination to put one over their neighbours to be the main reason why that match will be close.
The problem is that the main reason for that motivation is that they lost their batting mainstay, Eoin Morgan, to England.
They have played enough of these tournaments now to not be overawed (in fact, they weren’t in their first), and they have enough about them to cause a few problems. But it won’t quite be enough.
Player to watch: Niall O’Brien
Prediction: First round exit after giving England a scare
So I’ve gone for West Indies to beat Sri Lanka in the final, but it could just as easily be any two of six other nations. Either way, it should be fun. I’ll be following the tournament closely, and the Test Match Sofa commentary will be available on the player at the bottom of this site. Enjoy.
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